The Insulin Market
Over the next 20 years, the WHO predicts that worldwide insulin sales will grow from $12B to $54B: doubling in the US, tripling in the EU, and expanding 12 fold in the rest of the world. Both Type I and Type II diabetes patients use insulin. The Type II market, however, is driving worldwide growth, as dietary and lifestyle changes increase incidence, late stage patients require large dosing as they develop insulin resistance, early stage diabetics start insulin earlier, and patients live longer due to advances in glucose monitoring and disease awareness.
The insulin market can be broken into three product classes: recombinant human insulin, fast-acting analogs, and slow-acting (basal) insulin analogs. The recombinant human segment is declining as this product is moving to the end of its life cycle, being displaced by the more effective but slightly more expensive insulin analogs.
Major pharmaceutical companies are shopping for superior analogs in preparation for the next big market share shake-up when existing analogs go off patent in 2013/14. Each of these companies will want to have a product to compete in the next innovation cycle, and, in a $12B market, there is room for several "blockbuster" drugs.
In response to this need, Thermalin is developing a pipeline of promising therapeutic candidates.
